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Complete Playoff: Stronger expectations for Kyler Murray in Week 9

Another week, another round of important start/stay decisions. To help you make them, take a look at the six players with the most potential in Week 9.

Something to keep in mind while reading: the name “fade” or “bust” does not mean that you should stay in the game, depending on the depth of your entire list or the options available on the line your to quit.

Kyler Murray’s expectations were high for the 2024 season, one year removed from the torn ACL that ended his 2022 campaign and armed with a new weapon: rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.

Unfortunately, despite Murray standing as QB8 this season, it’s been a bigger ride than expected. He fell outside the weekly QB top 10 in five of eight weeks, including three finishes as QB18 or better. Despite having a big rush this season with five games off 45+ rushing yards (2 TDs), Murray has shown versatility as a passer; he had fewer than 215 yards in six of eight games and just two more TD performances.

This week, the Cardinals will face the Chicago Bears – a top-five defense with a 76.3 PFF grade through eight weeks of the season. They allow the 12th-fewest passing yards per attempt (6.81), the eighth-fewest after a catch for completion (4.9) and a league-low 2.2% touchdown percentage in the NFL passer rating (76.2) allowed and eighth-highest. forced termination rate (3.1%).

Yeah… they’re good.

Expect a potentially disappointing week for Murray against a defense that held rookie Jayden Daniels to the QB11 finish last week despite 378 yards on the day.

Temperature check 🔥 Consider Murray “Fade Lite” this week. He’s getting a wild start, but this might be one of the more volatile weeks we’ve seen so far for a QB who’s looking for consistency each week.

Second-year RB Bucky Irving made a big statement when he was given the opportunity to lead the Bucs’ backfield due to an injury to RB1 Rachaad White. However, in the past two weeks since White’s return, they have remained true to their word of sending the three-headed beast into the backfield.

In Week 9, the Buccaneers will face a strong Kansas City Chiefs defense that allows the third-lowest EPA at -0.19 and the eighth-lowest pass rush at 37.4%. They are giving up a league-low 11.69 points per game to opposing RBs.

On top of Kansas City’s strength to defend the run, Tampa Bay’s defensive weakness could spark something offensive for the Chiefs, who will play their second game with WR DeAndre Hopkins this week following the trade from Tennessee. If so, since the Bucs are 8.5-point underdogs this season, they could be forced out of the playoffs early. Although White played just 10 more snaps than Irving last week, he drove 28 passes to Irving’s 16, giving him a huge advantage in this situation.

Temperature check 🔥 Consider Irving a game-changer in Week 9 more than you should start.

The former Baltimore Raven got off to a hot start in LA this season, shocking just about everyone with 266 yards and two scores through the first two weeks of the season. At the time, Dobbins was ranked as the RB4 overall in half of the PPR scoring charts, but he has since drifted; Dobbins has been ranked RB30 since Week 3 with just one game of 15 or more fantasy points during that span. Despite averaging 17 rushing attempts per game in Weeks 3-8, he hasn’t been spectacular, ranking in the bottom 10 among RBs with 3.16 yards per attempt. gender and 2.12 yards after touchdown per attempt (min. 25% of offensive snaps played).

This week, Dobbins will face a newly strengthened Cleveland Browns defense that had safety Juan Thornhill — a capable defender against the run when healthy — back on the field. Thornhill has been sidelined for most of the season, landing on IR with a calf strain after the season opener. However, his presence now gives this defense the 12th-lowest EPA per carry (-0.06) and the 10th-lowest rushing percentage (37.7%) in the NFL. Next Gen Stats to boost.

Temperature check 🔥 Dobbins is a good starter as he averages 19 rebounds per game; Really, how often do you get that kind of work for a RB? However, it is better to expect another lower production.

The Miami Dolphins offense took a big step forward in Week 8 as Tua Tagovailoa returned to the helm, scoring 27 points and tallying their highest scoring total in a Week 1 win over the Jaguars – good stuff, but not the good ones. Neither Tyreek Hill (6-72-0) nor Jaylen Waddle (4-45-0) found much success, but it was a plus to see at least some progress on offense.

This week, the Dolphins will travel to Buffalo for a meeting with the Bills, who are currently allowing the second-fewest yards per game by wide receivers this season, given the deal low -0.27 EPA per pass test in NFL Pro. . Waddle has struggled against the franchise in most of their previous meetings with fewer than 50 yards in five of seven matchups against their AFC East rival.

Waddle just posted his sixth straight game as a WR4 or worse for fantasy and is looking for his first points of the season. Don’t count on that happening this week against a defense that will allow a dream 12 point day to any opposing WR at home this year. This works out as a better matchup for Hill, who works in the middle of the field more often and could use the Bills at safety.

Temperature check 🔥 Consider Waddle a boom/bust flex game this week more than a must-start.

The Packers’ second-round pick has been down as of late, averaging 31 receiving yards per game (93 receiving yards, 1 TD total) over the past three weeks – a big difference from the “boom” we saw earlier in the season, posting two games of 138+ receiving yards and a score in the first four weeks. Reed was a perfect example of the daunting task of trying to predict the Packers’ passing game on any given week. Unfortunately, a matchup with the Detroit Lions in Week 9 (however it may appear on paper – they allow the third most points per game to opposing WRs) may not be what gets Reed back on track.

Among the Packers wideouts, Reed is the most vulnerable to man-downs this season, which the Lions have the second-highest rate in the league. Despite leading the team in total goals this season, Reed saw only 15.7% of them against a person – the lowest rate among Packers wideouts with at least 20 goals this year. He caught three of his eight targets against a man for a total of eight receiving yards (2.7 yards per reception) with four total drops and a passer rating of 45.8 only. Yes.

Checking temperature 🔥 I’m a big believer in Reed’s talent and year-long value, but I think of Reed as a boom/bust flex play more than I think of this as a potential play.

Second-year running back Tucker Kraft is the hottest running back in football and for good reason. After a slow start this year, Kraft is on a full tear; over the past five games, his 17-game hitting streak has reached an absurd 61-901-17 that would undoubtedly give him the TE1 finish for the season. Even with a ridiculous number line (and a situation like TE3 per year), Kraft got just two out of five finishes in that season.

Heading into Week 9, the Packers will face uncertainty as to whether starting QB Jordan Love will be available for them after suffering a groin injury (and if he is, whether he will be 100%) or not. If Love is out, it will be Malik Willis at QB; Kraft ranks fourth on the team in goals against Willis this season behind Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs. The Lions are allowing a league-low -0.57 EPA on targets by TEs this year, as they have held Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson to a combined 6.8 points per outing this season.

Checking temperature 🔥 As has been the case with the tight ends on the fades list this year, there aren’t many TEs you can afford to sit on week to week; if you find a player with high upside, you’ll probably be putting him on your list. Kraft is no exception given the highs he’s shown in recent weeks, but it’s better to upset expectations for his booming ability in Week 9.

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