Is the NBA title window closed for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks?

Starting the season 1-3 isn’t the end of the world, but for a team with championship aspirations like the Milwaukee Bucks, it’s an inauspicious start.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard have yet to find their groove, and it’s clear that this partnership needs more time — and help. Chris Middleton is still ruled out. The core is aging, the bench is weak, and the prospect pool is almost non-existent. To make matters worse, the Bucks don’t control a single pick until 2031. And, oh yeah – Doc Rivers is the coach. Has the title window in Milwaukee quietly closed?

I’d bet that yes, the Giannis Era Bucks will go down as one-man champions. And there is nothing wrong with that in any way. Their 2021 run was for the ages, with Giannis looking like he would be sidelined by a major injury only to come back, dominate, and drop 50 points in the championship.

Of course, there are no sureties in the NBA. Businesses and surprises happen. Accidents happen. Just ask the 2019 Raptors.

Giannis-Dame’s team still has a chance to succeed. Statistically, they’re still at the top when Giannis watches Lillard. This is despite the fact that Giannis is a mediocre player. He’ll often get inside a defender and get a little contact before sliding to the basket, while Brook Lopez will connect hard on the side giving Lillard a lane to the basket or a spot to get into his jumper. Currently, Lopez is setting almost double the number of Lillard screens that Giannis is making. So, Giannis has to improve in this department and he has to prioritize this even if it means taking fewer shots.

Milwaukee got Lillard for good reason. And after a down year, he now looks as scrappy as he did during the 2022-23 season in Portland when he averaged a career-high 32.2 points on 64.5% shooting. true. At some point, the Bucks will probably get over .500, Giannis and Dame will have dominant performances, and Middleton will be back. There will be a sense of optimism in Milwaukee, at least for a while.

It’s about everyone on the list. Without Middleton, the Bucks don’t have a reliable shot; they rank 18th in 3-point percentage and 23rd in attempts. And when Lopez isn’t on the floor, the Bucks defense collapses. The sample sizes are small, but the Bucks went from a modest 112.1 defensive rating with Lopez to 122.3 with Bobby Portis. Portis will have a five-minute period where he hits every shot, but that doesn’t make up for his inability to get out, stop the ball and his blindfolded defensive awareness.

Jrue Holiday’s absence left a void on defense and confidence that Milwaukee could not replace. The holiday trade for Lillard was meant to add offense, but the team feels exposed defensively. Gary Trent Jr. you jumped for a reason; he is not the answer.

In Sunday’s Bucks’ loss to the Celtics, Boston had shots at every point — layoffs included — while Milwaukee made just four of its three attempts. The difference in depth was put on display across the board. The Celtics have two of the NBA’s top backups at their position in guard Payton Pritchard, who they drafted and developed, and center Luke Kornet, who they acquired at just 25 years old. , rigged elections and unprepared youth.

Bucks general manager Jon Horst had the opportunity to surround Giannis with the right talent, but he was frustrated. For years, Milwaukee has traded draft picks or picked green picks with potential over immediate impact. Since Horst took over as GM in 2017, he has drafted six players in the top 40:

• DJ Wilson, 17th in 2017

• Donte DiVincenzo, 17th in 2018

• MarJon Beauchamp, 24th in 2022

• Andre Jackson, 36th in 2023

• AJ Johnson, 23rd in 2024

• Tyler Smith, 33rd in 2024

DiVincenzo is a celebrity, though he didn’t break out until after the Bucks traded him for an aging, fading Serge Ibaka. Jackson still has potential, but his shaky jumper makes him a challenge to play next to Giannis.

But the following players were drafted in the first round after Wilson: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White and Josh Hart. All six of them are still productive players. Wilson plays for the Shanghai Sharks.

And Johnson’s pick in the 2024 draft is one of the most surprising picks in recent memory. Johnson weighs 167 pounds. He averaged 2.9 points last year on 42% true shooting in Australia. He has two years left before he leaves. Yet the Bucks — a team with a 36-year-old center, a 34-year-old guard, a 33-year-old guard and the 30-year-old face of the franchise — made the choice. waiting for the small chance he ever became something. Meanwhile, some NBA-ready rookies were still on the board, such as Suns forward Ryan Dunn, who is one of the best point guards to enter the NBA in recent memory. and made more than 40% of his 3’s so far.

Horst was instrumental in building a championship team around Giannis, acquiring Lopez, Jrue Holiday and PJ Tucker, and firing Jason Kidd and hiring Mike Budenholzer. But the GM who pushed for the title now faces the cost of winning decisions when his online moves don’t work. Selling every pick through 2031 leaves them out of stock for the trade deadline, and there aren’t any minor leaguers worth buying in needles. In the years since he won it all, he has fallen short of every pick, catching every game in the late second round and the undrafted draft (though , AJ Green is a jerk). And the other decisions haven’t panned out yet, whether it’s DiVincenzo-for-Ibaka, five second basemen for a washed-up Jae Crowder, or hiring Adrian Griffin and firing him just to hire Doc .

Rivers will likely be the scapegoat if the team continues to stumble. And in some ways, that’s okay. This system feels old and lazy. There is also a lack of air. On the other hand, how much can any coach do with an aging back, weak assets and a damaged bench? On the other hand, even the best roster can falter under the wrong coach. Just ask the Magic, Celtics and Clippers about Doc’s track record of three 3-1 wins and five 3-2 wins. But for now, the Bucks need to worry about winning games before thinking about winning the series.

This season is about more than just winning for the Bucks. It’s about proving they’re still title contenders — and showing Giannis that they deserve his loyalty.